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 Higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices tamp down California housing affordability in fourth-quarter 2024, C.A.R. reports

• Fifteen percent of California households could afford to purchase the $874,290 median-priced home in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 16 percent in third-quarter 2024 and unchanged from 15 percent in fourth-quarter 2023.
  
• A minimum annual income of $220,000 was needed to make monthly payments of $5,550, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 6.76 percent interest rate.
  
• Twenty-four percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $670,000 median-priced condo or townhome. A minimum annual income of $170,000 was required to make a monthly payment of $4,250.

LOS ANGELES (Feb. 7) – An upturn in mortgage rates and elevated home prices constrained California housing affordability in the fourth quarter, as borrowing costs remained near all-time highs, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/HAI-2024-Q4

Fifteen percent of the state’s homebuyers could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in fourth-quarter 2024, down from 16 percent in the third quarter of 2024 and unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2023, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI).

The fourth-quarter 2024 figure is about a fourth of the affordability index peak of 56 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

Rates have begun trending upward since October and continued to stay elevated at the start of this year. Over the next quarter or two, rates could fluctuate as the impact of policies enacted by the new White House administration remains uncertain. The Federal Reserved announced at their January meeting that they will pause any changes on cutting rates and will take a wait-and-see strategy in the upcoming months. As such, mortgage rates will likely remain high.

A minimum annual income of $222,000 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $874,290 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the fourth quarter of 2024. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance (PITI) on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $5,550, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 6.76 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 6.63 percent in third-quarter 2024 and 7.39 percent in fourth-quarter 2023. The monthly PITI for a typical single-family home in California inched up from the previous quarter but stayed below the same quarter of last year.

The statewide median price of an existing single-family home edged down 0.7 percent quarter-to-quarter, due partly to seasonal factors, but the slight dip can also be attributed to a change in the mix of sales. On a year-over-year basis, California continued to record price increases for the sixth consecutive quarter. In fact, price growth reaccelerated its pace to 4.9 percent in fourth-quarter 2024 from 4.3 percent in the third quarter. As the market goes through the off season, home prices will soften further as inventory rises and competition cools off through the first quarter of the year. While moderate price growth will ease the affordability crunch that buyers face, elevated mortgage rates, however, will continue to be a challenge for many in the next couple of quarters.

The share of California households that could afford a typical condo/townhome in fourth-quarter 2024 dipped to 24 percent, down from 25 percent recorded in the previous quarter and up from the 22 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. An annual income of $170,000 was required to make the monthly payment of $4,250 on the $670,000 median-priced condo/townhome in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Compared with California, more than one-third (36 percent) of the nation’s households could afford to purchase a $410,100 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $104,000 to make monthly payments of $2,600. Nationwide, affordability inched up from 35 percent a year ago. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the nationwide minimum required annual income was less than half that of California’s for the seventh consecutive quarter.

Key points from the fourth-quarter 2024 Housing Affordability report include:

• On a quarter-to-quarter basis, housing affordability declined in 23 counties and remained unchanged in 19. Only 11 counties showed quarter-to-quarter improvement in affordability as a result of modest price declines in those counties during the same time period. When compared to a year ago, 42 counties were more affordable, while six counties were less affordable and five remained unchanged.  
• Lassen (50 percent) remained the most affordable county in the state, followed by Tehama (38 percent), and a three-way tie for the next rank between Plumas, Shasta and Tuolumne at 36 percent. Of all counties in California, Lassen continued to require the lowest minimum qualifying income ($67,200) to purchase a median-priced home in the fourth quarter of 2024.  
• Mono (6 percent), a three-way tie between Monterey, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara at 10 percent, and Los Angeles (11 percent) were the least affordable counties in California, with each of them requiring a minimum income of at least $235,600 to purchase a median-priced home in the respective counties.San Mateo continued to require the highest minimum qualifying income ($513,200) to buy a median-priced home in fourth-quarter 2024 and was the only county in the state with a minimum qualifying income of over $500,000. Santa Clara and Marin came in second and third with a minimum required income of $487,600 and $418,800, respectively.
  
• While housing affordability improved from a year ago in the majority of counties throughout the state due to higher household income and lower mortgage rates, home prices, however, remained elevated throughout much of California despite slower growth from the previous quarter. As a result, housing affordability in a fifth of the counties tracked by C.A.R. either remained unchanged or declined from the same quarter of last year. Sutter (28 percent) experienced the biggest affordability drop, falling three points from third-quarter 2024. Merced (27 percent) and Tehama (38 percent) followed closely, with each declining two points below the fourth quarter of 2023 as price growth in these counties grew more modestly than in other counties. Housing affordability in California remained near its all-time low across the state and continued to be a challenge for both buyers and sellers.

See C.A.R.’s historical housing affordability data.

See first-time buyer housing affordability data.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for nearly 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Sacramento.

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CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^®
Traditional Housing Affordability Index
Fourth Quarter 2024

SOURCE: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2025releases/4qtr2024hai

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• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 240,940 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 5.4 percent from August and down 21.5 percent from September 2022.
  
• September’s statewide median home price was $843,340, down 1.9 percent from August and up 3.2 percent from September 2022.
  
• Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 28.5 percent in September.

LOS ANGELES (Oct. 18) – Persistently high mortgage rates continue to test California’s housing market as home sales fell for the fourth consecutive month in September, while the median price rose from the year-ago level for the third straight month to record its largest year-over-year gain in more than a year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/en/Global/Infographics/2023-09-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 240,940 in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR^® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

September’s sales pace was down 5.4 percent on a monthly basis from 254,740 in August and down 21.5 percent from a year ago, when a revised 307,000 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 12th month in a row. The monthly decline was the fourth consecutive decrease, and the annual decline was the 27^th straight drop.

With the market being less competitive, there are greater opportunities for consumers who need to purchase a home for personal reasons or those who can qualify to purchase at today’s interest rates,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR^®.

“More sellers are making concessions as homes are taking longer to sell, fewer homes are selling above asking price, and there are more homes to choose from.”

Home prices rose again from the year-ago level for the third straight month, as the statewide median price recorded its largest year-over-year gain in 15 months. California’s statewide median price dipped 1.9 percent from August’s revised $859,800 to $843,340 in September and rose 3.2 percent from $817,150 a year ago. While September’s median price took a step back from the 15-month high recorded in August, the month-to-month decline was in line with the long-run August-to-September price adjustment of -1.8 percent observed in the last 44 years. Prices are likely to experience monthly declines in the next couple of months, following the traditional seasonal pattern. Positive year-over-year price growth is expected to persist through the remainder of the year as housing supply is expected to remain tight.

“As mortgage rates surge to new highs not seen in more than two decades, home sales are being tested and are likely to remain tepid for the next few months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With the Fed planning on holding rates higher for longer, the cost of borrowing will remain elevated and may not come down much in the near term. Housing affordability will continue to hinder sales activity for the rest of the year, especially in the low- and mid-price ranges.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s September 2023 resale housing report include:

• At the regional level, all major regions experienced a sales decrease in September on a year-over-year basis, with all five major regions dropping more than 20 percent. The San Francisco Bay Area region recorded the biggest annual sales decline at -23.7 percent, followed by the Central Valley (-22.5 percent), the Far North (-22.3 percent), Southern California (-21.7 percent) and the Central Coast (-20.8 percent).
  
• Forty-six of the 52 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered a sales decline from a year ago in September, with 43 counties dropping more than 10 percent and 28 counties falling more than 20 percent from last year. Home sales in Siskiyou (-52.4 percent) fell the most, followed by Mariposa (-46.7 percent) and Lassen (-39.1 percent). Five counties posted a sales increase from last year, with Mono (50 percent) gaining the most, followed by Sutter (14.5 percent) and Madera (10.3 percent).  
• At the regional level, home prices increased from a year ago in all five major regions. The San Francisco Bay Area’s median price (6.6 percent) improved on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive month and was the region with the biggest annual gain last month. Five out of nine counties within the region recorded an annual gain, with Santa Clara registering the highest growth of 9.0 percent from the prior year. Southern California (4.7 percent), the Central Valley (3.4 percent), Central Coast (3.3 percent) and the Far North region (1.4 percent) also posted mild annual increases. Home prices continued to improve in many counties across the state, but 21 counties still registered a year-over-year decline in their median prices in September. Lassen posted the biggest price decline with a drop of -32.6 percent from last September, followed by Lake (-23.4 percent) and Mendocino (-16.3 percent). Twenty-nine counties recorded an annual increase in median price, with Mariposa (26.4 percent) recording the biggest jump in its median price, followed by Calaveras (19.4 percent) and Tulare (14.9 percent).
• Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in September as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was 2.8 in September 2023. It increased 16.7 percent on a month-over-month basis and was unchanged from last September.

• Active listings at the state level continued to dip on a year-over year basis for five straight months, with the decline in each of the last six months all registering more than 20 percent year-over-year. With rates remaining high and the market transitioning to the low season, active listings will not likely improve much, if at all, before the end of the year.
• Active listings declined in more than two-thirds of all counties from a year ago, with 26 counties dropping more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa (-49.5 percent) posted the biggest annual drop in September, followed by Sacramento (-42.5 percent) and Alameda (-41.5 percent).Fifteen counties recorded an annual gain, with Mariposa registering the largest yearly gain of 38.2 percent, followed by Amador (27.3 percent) and Siskiyou (24.0 percent). On a month-to-month basis, 11 counties experienced a drop in active listings in September, while 44 counties followed the seasonal pattern, increasing monthly from August as the market transitioned into the low home buying season.
• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 18 days in September and 27 days in September 2022.

• C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 100 percent in September 2023 and 97.6 percent in September 2022.
  
• The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $417, up from $401 in September a year ago.
  
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.20 percent in September, up from 6.11 percent in September 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS^® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 51 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

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SOURCE: https://www.car.org/marketdata/marketminute#bht.63f88d73-4416-48d3-97dc-a564a92a742https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2023-News-Releases/sept2023salese.7

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Unemployment claims show labor market still tight: In addition to a strong jobs report for August, which showed a net increase of 23,100 new nonfarm jobs, the latest weekly data showed that Californians were filing new claims for unemployment insurance at the lowest rate since October of 2022. Last week, 35,040 new claims were filed with the state’s Employment Development Department—roughly 1,500 fewer claims than were filed the week prior, which is more than 28,000 few UI claims than were filed during the second week in January. Although tightness in the labor market has been a source of upward pressure on inflation, remaining at or near full employment has helped broader macroeconomic growth perform above expectations over the short run.

New C.A.R. forecast shows stronger sales and prices in 2024: Last week, C.A.R. released its housing market and economic forecast for 2024, which predicts a modest increase in both home sales and in home prices next year. Although the state is not expected to return to the elevated levels reached during 2021, existing single-family transactions are expected to rise to nearly 330,000 units. This would represent a 22.9% increase from a projected 266,100 units this year. Home prices, which continue to be driven higher by a dearth of available inventory, will continue to rise in 2024, with the median price expected to reach $866,300 on an annual basis—a 6.2% increase from 2023 and slightly higher than the original projection for last year. The recovery is likely to remain subdued, but both inventory and sales should pick up in the second half of the year as rates begin to dip slightly.

Mortgage applications rise slightly after 8 consecutive declines: Demand for homes continues to come in well below the 15-year highs reached over the past two years, but new mortgage purchase applications perked up slightly last week despite rates trending higher. The overall index rose 12% last week, bucking the 8-week slide that began in July. Despite this modest bump, September as a whole is coming in 12% below August and more than 25% lower than September 2023. There remains growing interest from investors, second/vacation home sales, and from international buyers, but first-time buyers remained challenged by decreasing affordability while repeat sales are locked into their current homes by low rates on their existing mortgages and an increasing number of long-time homeowners facing potential capital gains if they were to sell their existing residence.

Fed signals higher for longer strategy at latest FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week and voted to keep their target interest rate the same at 5.5%. Although this was the expected outcome by oddsmakers, policymakers did signal that they may have to keep rates higher for longer in order to ensure that inflation is tamed. The ‘dot plot,’ which is an estimation of where policymakers think rates need to be in order to achieve their dual mandate of full employment and price stability, showed that rates will need to remain elevated longer than was anticipated when they made their last set of projections at the end of June. Three months ago, consensus expectations amongst voting members called for a 4.5% Fed Funds Rate in 2024, which equated to a 100 basis-point reduction. The new average for 2024 of 5% means the Fed Funds Rate is currently scheduled to come down roughly half as much next year as originally signaled.

California market softens slightly ahead of winter amidst rising rates: The latest on California’s housing market shows that sales have not dipped back to the lows reached during the winter of 2022, which rates initially rose above 7%. However, transactions did dip below 260,000 units for the first time since January. Additionally, pending sales suggest a sluggish next few months as new escrows dipped by more than 23% from 2022’s relatively lackluster pace in August. In addition, competition has eased slightly as we approach the winter months as the number of homes being reduced has been rising in recent weeks while the percentage of homes selling above their listing price on the MLS has been falling. The rebalancing has been slight, with homes sold above asking price down from 52% in June to 46% last week, but it has been consistent for the past 3 months. The market remained characterized by too little inventory, but as the typical homebuying season has ebbed, homes are taking slightly longer to go pending and buyers and sellers are beginning to negotiate more.

SOURCE: https://www.car.org/marketdata/marketminute#bht.63f88d73-4416-48d3-97dc-a564a92a742e.7

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California home sales dip again as rates soar to a 22-year high: Sales of existing homes in California dipped on a year-over-year basis as costs of borrowing continued to climb while supply remained tight. The dip extended the months of annual declines to 26 in a row, and the sales pace in August reached the lowest level in seven months. Despite the continuing decline, sales remained above the recent bottom of 237,000 recorded in November of last year when mortgage rates surpassed 7% for the first time in over two decades. With rates staying elevated and above 7% in recent weeks, sales are expected to be muted in the coming months. Pending sales, in fact, declined nearly 25% in August, which suggests that closed sales in California will likely slip again in September before bouncing back in October.

Home prices continue to recover with the statewide median price gaining the most in 14 months: Home prices rose again from the year-ago level for the second straight months, with the statewide median having its biggest year-over-year gain in fourteen months. August’s median price was the highest in 15 months and was the highest since California reached its peak in May of last year. Despite the average 30-year fixed rate remaining about 200 bps above the same time last year, tight housing supply and a highly competitive housing environment continued to provide support to home prices. The share of sales with sold price above asking price, in fact, remained elevated at 47.4% and was above last year’s level by 15 percentage points. Upward pressure on home prices will ease in coming months as the market moves towards the year-end, but positive year-over-year gain should persist throughout the rest of the year as rates begin to come down in Q4 2023.

Lock-in effect keeps inventory low throughout the summer: Housing supply in California continued to decline from last year in August as mortgage rates remained elevated. Active listings at the state level have fallen from a year ago for five months in a row, and the decline in each of the last four months all registered more than 20% year-over-year. Newly added for-sale properties shrank again last month but the annual pace of decline continued to decelerate, after reaching -30.1% in April earlier this year. The statewide new active listings for existing single-family homes in August increased month-to-month by 6.1% and dropped 17.5% year-over-year. As the market enters the last quarter of the year, the number of new listings should shrink month-over-month if it follows the normal seasonal trend. The rate of decline could be reduced, however, if rates begin to moderate in the coming months.

Consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in over a year: Inflation had the largest increase since June of last year as gasoline prices jumped in August. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% on a month-over-month basis, while the core CPI increased at a more moderate pace of 0.3% from the prior month. Despite higher-than-expected monthly gains on both indices, core inflation continued to show a marked downshift since earlier this year. Price growth excluding volatile food and energy items edged lower to 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. The slowing trend in inflation is probably enough to convince the Fed to put a pause on rate hikes in the upcoming FOMC meeting. Several factors, however, could exacerbate inflation in coming months. Gasoline prices could be kept higher if Saudi Arabia decides to extend its cuts in oil production until the end of the year. The strike by the United Auto Workers union could tighten up auto production and push up prices on dealership lots. The Fed could still raise rates before the end of the year if any of those – or other unexpected scenarios – happens and causes inflation to flare up in the next few months.

Retail sales surpass expectation but consumers could face challenges in coming months: U.S. retail sales surprised on the upside and increased 0.6% month-over-month in August. Spending at gas stations, which surged 5.2% last month, largely boosted the overall retail sales activity, as spending on other items only increased modestly by 0.2%. Online retail sales were flat in August after surging in July due mainly to Amazon’s Prime Day promotional event. Despite a summer of robust spending, headwinds could be emerging for consumers, and the U.S. economy should begin to cool in the upcoming quarter. The resumption of student loan payments next month could pull up to $100 billion out of consumer pockets over the coming year, while a possible government shutdown could reduce economic growth by 0.15% for each week it lasted.

SOURCE: https://www.car.org/marketdata/marketminute#bht.63f88d73-4416-48d3-97dc-a564a92a742e.7

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